شناسایی و اولویت بندی عوامل مؤثر بر خشک شدن دریاچه ی ارومیه با استفاده از روش یکپارچه سازی دیمتل و فرایند تحلیل شبکه ای فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، باشگاه پژوهشگران جوان و نخبگان، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه تهران، مرکز پژوهش های کاربردی سازمان زمین شناسی و اکتشافات معدنی کشور

4 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

خشک شدن دریاچه ی ارومیه عوارض جبران ناپذیری بر محیط زیست منطقه خواهد داشت. در این پژوهش با توجه به ضرورت
مسئله، پس از مطالعه و شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر خشک شدن دریاچه ی ارومیه، مدلی مفهومی با ساختار شبکه ای ارائه می شود که به دلیل
وابستگی عوامل مدل مفهومی به یکدیگر، برای بررسی میزان اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری و تعیین ضرایب اهمیت نسبی و رتبه بندی آ نها از روش
یکپارچه سازی دیمتل و فرایند تحلیل شبک های فازی استفاده می گردد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در سطح معیارهای اصلی «بعد مدیریتی »
دارای بیشترین شدت اثرگذاری و بیشترین ضریب اهمیت نسبی است. همچنین در بخش زیرمعیارها «عدم تدوین برنامه ی استراتژیک
در حوزه ی نگهداشت دریاچه در سال های گذشته و به روزرسانی آن » از لحاظ شدت اثرگذاری رتبه ی نخست و «عدم اعتقاد مدیران، به
محیط زیست و توجه به اهداف کوتاه مدت » بیشترین ضریب اهمیت نسبی را به خود اختصاص داده است. با توجه به نتایج حاصله لازم است
نگرش مدیران اجرایی تغییر یابد و از توجه صرف به منافع اقتصادی به سمت حفظ محیط زیست و تلاش برای نگهداشت آن، گرایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identify and Prioritize he Factors Affecting on the Drying of Urmia Lake with Integrated Fuzzy DEMATEL & Analytic Network Process (F.D.ANP)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Mohammadi 1
  • Kazem Nasiri Kashani 2
  • Sahar Maleki 3
  • Homa Rostami 4
2 Ph.D Student in industrial managemrnt, Young Researchers and Elites club, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D Student, Geography Faculty, Tehran University, Applied Geological Research of Iran
4 Ph.D Student, Geography Faculty, Tehran University
چکیده [English]

Drying of Lake of Urmia will have irrecoverable effects on the environment of the region. In this study, with
due attention to the requirements of the problem, first we identify the parameters affecting the drying of Urmia
Lake, then we propose a conceptual model of network structure. As the parameters of the conceptual model
are interdependent, we use an integrated DEMATEL and Fuzzy Analytic Network Process technique in order to
assess the impacts and impressionability of those parameters as well as relative importance weights and ranking
thereof. The results indicated that among main criteria, "management aspect" had the greatest impact and the
maximum importance weight. Also among sub-criteria, "lack of strategic plan about the preservation of lake in
the past years and updating it" ranked as first in terms of intensity of impacts. Moreover, "Lack of attention to
the environment among managers and focusing on short-term goals" acquired the maximum importance weight.
According to the results, it seems necessary for the managers to switch from mere economical attitude, towards
environmental protective and preservative attitude.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Disaster
  • environment
  • F.D.ANP
  • Management
  • MCDM
1. Ahmadian, M &Asghari, S. (2013). The Environmental
consequences of reduced water levels in the Lake Urmia
and its survival. Journal of Territory, (40), 81-96.
(in persian)
2. Kadioglu, M., Sen, Z. & Batur, M. (1997). The great test
soda-water Lake in the world and how it is influenced
by climatic change. Ann Geophysical, Springer
Verlag, (15), 1489-1497.
3. Nazmfar, H., Fathi, M & Khaligi, M. (2014). Effects of
water level fluctuations in Lake Urmia in Iran on the
bio-ecology of the North West using telemetry data.
Geography and Environmental Planning, 26 (3), 193-
208.(in persian)
4. Fathian, F., Morid, S &Arshad, S. (2013). Trend Assessment
of Land Use Changes Using Remote Sensing
Technique and its Relationship with Streamflows
Trend (Case Study: The East Sub-Basins of Urmia
Lake). Journal of Water and Soil, (27), 642-655.
5. Koushki, R. (2013). Assessing the portions of each parameter
on decline of the Lake’s water level in different
years, Lake Urmia Conference, Berlin Centre for
Caspian Region Studies (BC CARE).
6. Eimanifar, A. & Mohebbi, F. (2007). Urmia Lake
(Northwest Iran) a brief review. Saline Systems-
BioMed Central Ltd, (3:5), 1-8.
7. Hoseinpour, M., FakheriFard, A & Naghili, R. (2010).
Death of Urmia Lake, a Silent Disaster Investigating
of causes, results and solutions of Urmia Lake
drying, The 1st International Applied Geological Congress,
Department of Geology, Islamic Azad University-
Mashhad Branch, Iran, 26-28.
8. Sima, S., and Tajrishy, M. (2014). Developing water
quality maps of a hyper-saline lake using spatial interpolation
methods, Sharif University of Technology,
ScientiaIranica, Transactions A: Civil Engineering,
22(1), 30-46.
9. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
(2012). the drying of Iran’s Lake Urmia and its environmental
consequences, Report.
10. Abbasi, F., Azizi, G., Karimi. M & Nazif, S. (2014). Assessment
of climate change`s portion on declining
water level in Urmia lake, Thesis of M.A. in Climatology,
Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran.
11. Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M & Hassanzadeh, Y.
(2012). Determining the main factors in declining
the urmia lake level by using system Dynamics Modelling.
Journal of water Resource Management, 26 (1),
129-145.
12. Alavipanah, K., Khodaei, K. &Biglou, J. (2005). Study
of satellite data efficacy on water quality in the urmia
lake causeway. Physical Geography Research Quarterly,
25
شناسایی و اولویت بندی عوامل مؤثر بر خشک شدن دریاچه ی ارومیه با
استفاده از روش یکپارچ هسازی دیمتل و فرایند تحلیل شبکه ای فازی
دوفصلنامه
علمی و پژوهشی
شماره سیزدهم
بهار و تابستان
1397
(53), 57-69.(in persian)
13. Bates, B., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., &Palutikof, J.
(2008). Climate change and water. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
14. Kebede, S., Y, Travi, T. Alemayehu & Marc V. (2006).
Water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to
fluctuations in rainfall, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia.
Journal of Hydrology, (316), 233-247.
15. Alden, M., Mortsch, L &Scheraga, J. (2003). Climate
Change and Water Quality in the Great Lakes Region:
Risks, Opportunities, and Responses. A Report
prepared for the Great Lakes Water Quality Board of the
International Joint Commission.
16. Nasiri, K.K., Modiri, M &Hashemzadeh, G. (2015).
Assessment Model for Implementing a Lean Transformation
in Enterprise Based on the Fuzzy Anp,
Fuzzy Dematel and Fuzzy Vikor. journal of modiriate-
farda, 42 (13), 129-156.(in persian)
17. Reza, K., & Vassilis, S. M. (1998). Delphi hierarchy
process (DHP): A methodology for priority setting
derived from the Delphi method and analytical hierarchy
process. European Journal of Operational Research,
(697), 947–914.
18. Saaty, T.L. (2002). Decision making, scaling, and number
crunching. Journal of Decision Sciences, (20), 404-
409.
19. Lin, C.J & Wu, W.W. (2008). A causal analytical method
for group decision making under fuzzy environment.
Expert Systems with Applications, (34), 205-
213.
20. Jeng, D.J.F & Tzeng, G.H., (2012). Social influence on
the use of Clinical Decision Support Systems: Revisiting
the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use
of Technology by the fuzzy DEMATEL technique.
Computers & Industrial Engineering, (62), 819–828.
21. Opricovic, S & Tzeng, G. H. (2003). Defuzzification
within a multicriteria decision model. International
Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-
Based Systems, 11(5), 635–652.
22. Saaty, T. L. (1996). Decision making with dependence
and feedback: The analytic network process. Pittsburgh:
RWS Publications.
23. Cil, I & Turkan, Y.S. (2013). An ANP-based assessment
model for lean enterprise transformation. International
Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,
(64), 1113–1130.
24. Leung, L.C &Cao, D., (2000). On consistency and
ranking of alternatives in fuzzy AHP. Europen Journal
of Operational Reasearch, 124(1).
25. Chen, J.F., Hsieh, H.N & Do, Q.H. (2015). Evaluating
teaching performance based on fuzzy AHP
andcomprehensive evaluation approach. Applied Soft
Computing (28), 100–108.
26. Chang, D.Y. (1996). Theory and Methodology Applications
of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP.
European Journal of Operational Research, (95), 649-
655.
27. Chang, D.Y., Zhu, k.j & Jing, Y. (1999). A discussion
on Extent Analysis Method and applications of
fuzzy AHP. European Journal of Operational Research,
(116), 450-456.
28. Kahraman, C., Ertay, T., & Büyüközkan, G. (2006). A
fuzzy optimization model for QFD planning process
using analytic network approach. European Journal of
Operational Research, (171), 390–411.
29. Yüksel, I &Dağdeviren, M., (2010). Using the fuzzy
analytic network process (ANP) for Balanced Scorecard
(BSC): A case study for a manufacturing firm.
Expert Systems with Applications, (37), 1270–1278
30. Wang, Y., Jung, K.A., Yeo, G.T & Chou, C.C. (2014).
Selecting a cruise port of call location using the
fuzzy-AHP method: A case study in East Asia.
Tourism Management, (42), 262-270.
31. Gogus, O & Boucher, T.O. (1998). Strong transitivity
and weak monotonicity in fuzzy pairwise comparisons.
Fuzzy Sets and Systems, (94), 1-133.
32. Golabian, H., (2010). Urumia Lake: Hydro-Ecological
Stabilization and Permanence Macro-engineering
Seawater in Unique Environments. Berlin, Springer-
Verlag, 365-397.
33. Shariatmadari1, A.,Abbaspour, M.,Abedi,
Z.,Vafaeenejad, A.& Tabatabai, R. (2015). Assessment
of the environmental condition of Lake Urmia
by combining DPSIR framework and productivity
model (Ishikawa). Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental
Sciences (JBES), Vol. 6 (6), 596-600.
34. Zarghami, M. (2011). Effective watershed management;
Case study of Urmia Lake, Iran. Lake and Reservoir
Management, (27),87–94.