نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد علوم و مهندسی آب،
2 استاد
3 استادیار مهندسی عمران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In this Paper, the Effect of Climate Change on Flood Emergency management was investigated in Tajan plain area. First the detection of climate change event was evaluated by using Non-parametric tests and The large-scale variations of atmospheric general circulation models with HadCM3 climate model under the A2 scenario were received in the four periods 2001-1971, 2040-2011, 2070-2041 and 2100-2071.For downscaling of the atmospheric general circulation models data at the regional level that it was used of statistical downscaling models SDSM5.5.1, artificial neural network and proportional methods. Based on the results of the statistical trend tests,it had been observed there are significant trend in the meteorological data changes of area and occurred phenomenon of climate change in the area. The overall results of SDSM model and proportional method indicate that the decrease in rainfall and increase in the temperature are in future periods. The results of artificial neural network model were not satisfactory, because of the above error to simulate the temperature at an observation period. Also, the predicted temperature and precipitation data had high and significant correlation respectively with historical data at 95 percent confidence level. Finally, we can conclude that the increase in temperature and precipitation at some Seasons of year in future time periods Due to snow melting due to temperature increase at the end of summer and beginning of autumn and precipitation increase at winter and autumn Seasons The value of probability flooding occur at this seasons of the year is on the rise.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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