بررسی نقش ادراک ریسک مردم بر رفتارهای کاهش ریسک زلزله در شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری رشته برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 عضوهیات علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس گروه شهرسازی

3 دانشیار دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

 سازمان‏های مرتبط با مدیریت بحران با شناخت نحوه‏ی ادراک ریسک مردم، عوامل مؤثر بر آن و چگونگی تأثیرگذاری ادراک بر رفتارهای کاهش ریسک، برنامه‏ها و تصمیمات مدیریتی خود را در راستای این یافته‏ها تعریف می‏کنند و به مشارکت بالاتر مردم و تحقق‏پذیری بیشتر برنامه‏ها و تصمیمات این سازمان‏ها کمک می‏کنند.  
هدف این تحقیق شناسایی نقش ادراک ریسک بر رفتارهای کاهش ریسک زلزله از دیدگاه خانوارهای ساکن شهر تهران است. روش تحقیق از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی و ابزار سنجش پرسش‏نامه، با حجم نمونه‏ی 267 مورد بوده است. برای آزمون تجربی مدل مفهومی، از مدل میانجی‏گری استفاده شد. در این مدل چنین فرض شده است که متغیرهای مستقل علاوه بر تأثیرگذاری به صورت مستقیم بر رفتارهای کاهش ریسک زلزله، از طریق متغیر میانجی ادراک ریسک نیز به صورت غیر‏مستقیم بر متغیر وابسته تأثیر می‏گذارند. مقدار میانجی‏گری با استفاده از آزمون سوبلتعیین شد.
بر اساس نتایج ارتباط بین ادراک ریسک و رفتارهای عملی کاهش ریسک زلزله معنی‏دار نیست، درحالی‏که بین ادراک ریسک و قصد رفتارهای کاهش ریسک زلزله در آینده رابطه‏ی معنی‏داری وجود دارد. نتایج حاصل از بررسی اثرات غیرمستقیم از طریق جدول سوبل تست نشان داد که متغیر میانجی ادراک ریسک برای سه متغیر نیاز به محافظت، تعصبات خوش‏بینانه و کنترل‏پذیری نقش میانجی دارد (Sobel test<0.05) و برای سایر متغیرها، نقش میانجی ندارد (Sobel test>0.05). 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Risk Perception on Risk Mitigation Behaviors (Case Study: Earthquake in Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Asgarizadeh 1
  • Mojtaba Rafieian 2
  • Hashem Dadashpoor 3
1 PhD Student in Urban and Regional Planning; Tabriat Modares University
2 Associate Professor of Urban Planning,Tarbiat Modares University
3 Associate Professor of Tarbiat Modares University
چکیده [English]

Abstract: Urban disaster management authorities should be aware of the factors affecting household risk management. This knowledge allows them to expect higher participation and higher percentage of implementation of their programs. The current research examines the role of risk perception as a mediator. It is assumed that the independent variables have both direct and indirect (through a mediator) effects on the dependent variable (risk mitigation behaviors). A field study was conducted in Tehran, where, recently a destructive earthquake has been announced by Geologist. The study was carried out in the areas which there are several fault lines in the north, east and west sides of the city from March until the end of April 2014. A set of questionnaire with a sample size of 264 was used.
The result of the study demonstrated that there was not a significant relationship between risk perception and actual behaviors of risk mitigation, however, the relationship between risk perception and intention to do risk mitigation behavior was significant. Results of mediator model through Sobel test indicated that the mediator variable of risk perception plays as a mediator for 3 variables of need to be protected, ooptimistic bias, and controllability (Sobel test <0.05).
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Perception
  • Risk Mitigation Behaviors
  • Mediation Model
  • Sobel test
  • Tehran
 
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