نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجو
2 استادیار گروه مهندسی سنجشازدور، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان
3 گروه جنگلداری دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، مازندران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Forest fire has many side effects on forest and land function. Among them are loss of biodiversity, reduction of economic
value of forests and climate change in large scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in forest fires
potentials. To achieve this goal, the required digital layers and data were obtained from the relevant websites and organizations
as well s through field surveys in the area of the study. After preparing the data by assuming the occurred fire, the
layers were entered in a fuzzy process using Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Ordered Weighted Average (OWA)
method. For this purpose, Zagros fire forests (Lordegan city) were examined using Landsat and MODIS images and considering
the factors affecting fire (topographical factors, human, climate and vegetation). In ANP procedure, the largest
weighs were assigned to the distance of residential areas from roads, GVMI index and maximum daily air temperature
factors in their magnitude order. OWA method was also used to create the hazard prediction model. Based on the results,
the fire hazard map was prepared in four classifications: very low, low, medium, and high. An accuracy assessment was
also performed using the relative operating characteristics. Of the six scenarios applied, the low-risk scenario and a small
compensation amount of ROC = 0.702 were evaluated as the best model to predict the risk of forest fires. Due the high
accuracy and precision of the model obtained, it can be used to contain the fires that will occur in the future.
کلیدواژهها [English]