Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Flood Emergency Management

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 researcher

2 Instructor, Civil engineering

3 Assist. Prof

Abstract

In this Paper, the Effect of Climate Change on Flood Emergency management was investigated in Tajan plain area. First the detection of climate change event was evaluated by using Non-parametric tests and The large-scale variations of atmospheric general circulation models with HadCM3 climate model under the A2 scenario were received in the four periods 2001-1971, 2040-2011, 2070-2041 and 2100-2071.For downscaling of the atmospheric general circulation models data at the regional level that it was used of statistical downscaling models SDSM5.5.1, artificial neural network and proportional methods. Based on the results of the statistical trend tests,it had been observed there are significant trend in the meteorological data changes of area and occurred phenomenon of ​​climate change in the area. The overall results of SDSM model and proportional method indicate that the decrease in rainfall and increase in the temperature are in future periods. The results of artificial neural network model were not satisfactory, because of the above error to simulate the temperature at an observation period. Also, the predicted temperature and precipitation data had high and significant correlation respectively with historical data at 95 percent confidence level. Finally, we can conclude that the increase in temperature and precipitation at some Seasons of year in future time periods Due to snow melting due to temperature increase at the end of summer and beginning of autumn and precipitation increase at winter and autumn Seasons The value of probability flooding occur at this seasons of the year is on the rise.

Keywords

References

  1.  

     

    1. علیزاده، ا. (1387). اصول هیدرولوژی کاربردی. انتشارات دانشگاه امام رضا (ع)، چاپ بیست و پنجم، فصل 7، 285-286 .
    2. Karamouz.M., Fallahi.M., Nazif.S., and Rahimi Farahani. M., )April, 2009(. Long Lead Rainfall Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling and Artificial Neural Network Modeling, Transaction A: Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Vol. 16, No. 2, 165-172.
    3. Chu.j.T.,  Xia.J., Xu.C.Y., and Singh.V.P., (2010). Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China. Theor Appl Climatol, Springer-Verlag, 99, 149–161.
    4. Von Storch. H., (1995(. Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: Storch HV, Navarra A, editors. Analysis of climate variability: applications of statistical techniques. Berlin: Springer, 11-26.
    5. Yu. P. S., Yang. T. C., and Chou. C. C., (2002). Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields in southern Taiwan. Climatic Change, 54, 165-179.
    6. Yue, S., Hashino. M., )2003(.Temperature trends in Japan: 1900-1996. Theoretical and applied Climatology, 75, 15-27

    7-     Partal. T., Kahya. E., (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydro    Process 20:2011–2026 PDA (Provincial Directorate of Agriculture) Official web sites. http://www.aydintarim.gov.tr/ aydinili.htm. Accessed 9 April 2008.

    8.    Xu. C. y., (1999). From GCMs to river flow: A review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modeling approaches. Progress in physical Geography, 23, 2, 229-249.

    9.     Wilby. R. L., and Dawson. C. w., (2007). SDSM4.2-User Manual.

    10-    سلیمانی ننادگانی. م، (1389). بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز خالص آبیاری گندم. پایان‏نامه‏ی مقطع کارشناسی ارشد دانشکده مهندسی فناوری و کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران.

    11-   Sajikumar. N., Thandaveswara. B.S., )1999(. Non Liner rainfall runoff Model using artificial neural network. Journal of Haydrology, 216, 32-35.

    12-   اسفندیاری درآباد. ف؛ حسینی. ا؛ آزادی مبارکی. م.؛ حجازی زاده. ز. (1389). پیش‏بینی میانگین دمای ماهانه ایستگاه سینوپتیک سنندج با استفاده از مدل شبکه‏ی عصبی مصنوعی پرسپترون چند لایه. فصلنامه‏ی علمی پژوهشی انجمن جغرافیای ایران، دوره‏ی جدید، سال هشتم، شماره‏ی 27، 45-65.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 05 April 2015
  • Revise Date: 04 April 2016
  • Accept Date: 07 August 2016

Share

How to cite

Statistics