https://www.joem.ir/ Emergency Management en daily 1 Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://www.joem.ir/article_737015.html Urban crises, due to their extensive economic, social, and environmental consequences, hold significant importance in urban management, and identifying factors that enhance citizens’ preventive behaviors is a critical research priority in this area. This study, entitled "Modeling the Relationships among Institutional Trust, Social Awareness, and Preventive Behaviors in Urban Crisis Management", aimed to examine the effects of institutional trust and social awareness on preventive behaviors and to test the mediating role of social awareness. The study population consisted of citizens over 18 years old residing in Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and Tabriz, who are exposed to various urban hazards such as earthquakes, floods, air pollution, and health crises. A sample of 320 participants was selected using stratified random sampling. Data were collected during the first half of 1404 (Iranian calendar). The research instrument was a standardized questionnaire including 12 items for institutional trust, 10 items for social awareness, and 14 items for preventive behaviors, whose reliability and validity were confirmed through Cronbach’s alpha, composite reliability, and confirmatory factor analysis. Data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS software and the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The results indicated that institutional trust had a direct and positive effect on social awareness (β=0.48, t=6.00) and preventive behaviors (β=0.22, t=3.67), and social awareness had a significant direct effect on preventive behaviors (β=0.55, t=7.86). Moreover, the indirect effect of institutional trust on preventive behaviors through social awareness was 0.26, with a confidence interval excluding zero, confirming the partial mediating role of social awareness. Based on these findings, enhancing citizens’ trust in official institutions and promoting social awareness can simultaneously increase preventive behaviors in response to urban crises, and urban policymakers can improve community resilience and preparedness by focusing on these two factors. https://www.joem.ir/article_737198.html Temporary settlement, as one of the vital strategies in disaster management, plays a crucial role in reducing human and financial losses caused by natural hazards. In the event of disasters such as floods and earthquakes, providing safe and suitable sites for temporary settlement of affected populations is of paramount importance. Given this necessity, the present study aimed to identify suitable areas for temporary settlement in Khuzestan Province, Iran. The research utilized a 30-meter SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), earthquake epicenter data, CHIRPS satellite imagery, and the 1:100,000 geological digital layer of the region as the main input datasets. The primary tools applied included Google Earth Engine, ArcGIS, and TerrSet. Using an integrated Relative Weight Coefficient (RWC) and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) model, along with the exclusion of restricted zones, potential areas for temporary settlement were identified. The results indicated that due to natural constraints, the majority of Khuzestan Province has limited potential for temporary settlement, with only 8% of the province-characterized by appropriate distance from rivers, urban centers, and main roads, as well as low slope and reduced earthquake risk-being suitable. Moreover, findings revealed that 15 cities in Khuzestan meet the requirements for temporary settlement, while 28 cities lack this potential due to high vulnerability to flood and earthquake hazards. This study highlights the significant gap between needs and available resources in Khuzestan and emphasizes the urgent necessity of planning and establishing safe temporary settlement sites in the province. https://www.joem.ir/article_737199.html As a shallow, semi-enclosed sea, the Persian Gulf is particularly sensitive to climate change and coupled atmospheric-oceanic variability. However, the role of climate regimes in the surrounding regions including adjacent coastal lands, neighboring shorelines, and the Gulf of Oman in modulating or amplifying the thermal characteristics of the Gulf’s water body has not yet been comprehensively investigated. This study employs a multi-algorithm unsupervised machine learning framework to examine the influence of surrounding climate regimes on the thermal dynamics of the Persian Gulf over the period 1960-2021. ERA5 reanalysis data encompassing key atmospheric and oceanic variables (temperature, wind, precipitation, evaporation, radiation, and cloud cover) were extracted, standardized, and analyzed using five complementary clustering algorithms: K-Means, MiniBatchKMeans, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), DBSCAN, and Fuzzy C-Means. The outputs were integrated through consensus clustering, resulting in the identification of five robust climate regimes with distinct impacts on the Gulf’s sea surface temperature (SST). The results indicate that the northern extreme-heat regime is strongly associated with sustained SST increases in the shallow northern Gulf, whereas the southern marine-moderate and monsoon-fringe regimes exert a pronounced thermal-moderating effect. Teleconnection analysis reveals that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the dominant driver of wet winter anomalies, while ENSO primarily governs the intensification of summer monsoonal intrusions. By introducing a data-driven and transferable framework, this study provides new insights into regime-based SST predictability, ecosystem risk assessment, and climate-resilient management strategies for semi-enclosed seas. https://www.joem.ir/article_737270.html Appropriate investment in safety controls to prevent future accident costs is a beneficial strategy. This paper presents a mechanism to achieve the optimal level of safety investment considering budget constraints. First, risk assessment was conducted using the FMEA method, and then the data related to the probability of occurrence and detection of risks were converted into fuzzy numbers. With the help of an expert team, the costs of accidents, the costs of proposed controls, the impact of each control on risk reduction, and the company's degree of fault in each incident were estimated. Using nonlinear programming with zero-one variables, the problem was modeled, and after executing the model, the available budget was optimally allocated to the proposed controls. By implementing the model in an oil refining company without budget constraints, it was found that increasing investment up to a certain level reduces the company's total costs, but beyond that point, further investment does not significantly reduce the total costs. https://www.joem.ir/article_737315.html Violence is a major social challenge that has predominantly been examined within the framework of male dominance over women, while intra-gender violence has received far less scholarly attention. Among these, violence of women against women represents a relatively hidden and understudied phenomenon with significant implications, as it contributes to the reproduction of discriminatory attitudes and undermines female solidarity. The present study aims to explain the cultural factors influencing physical and verbal violence of women against women in municipal districts 1, 2, 16, and 17 of Tehran. This research adopts a qualitative approach using grounded theory methodology based on Strauss and Corbin (1998). Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 victimized women. The selection of this method was due to the complex and multi-layered nature of the phenomenon and the lack of sufficient theoretical development in this field in Iran. Data analysis was conducted through open, axial, and selective coding. The findings reveal that a set of cultural factors-including internalized misogyny, gender socialization, negative competition, conflict of interests, and conformity with patriarchal norms—play a significant role in shaping violence among women. These forms of violence are primarily expressed through humiliation, sarcasm, rumor-spreading, and social exclusion, and in some cases escalate into physical aggression. The results indicate that violence of women against women is not merely an individual behavior but a reflection of broader socio-cultural structures reproduced through socialization processes. Therefore, transforming cultural attitudes, promoting conflict resolution skills, and strengthening female solidarity are essential measures for mitigating this phenomenon. https://www.joem.ir/article_737359.html Cognitive warfare, as one of the most complex forms of contemporary conflicts, targets perception, cognition, and decision-making processes of individuals and societies, thereby posing a fundamental threat to national security. This study aims to elucidate the strategic role of cognitive computing in strengthening cognitive defense and to propose a localized framework for countering cognitive threats. The research employed a meta-synthesis approach based on the seven-step model of Sandelowski and Barroso. Data were systematically collected from 58 credible Persian and English sources, including articles, books, and technical reports, published between 2020 and 2024. Sources were selected purposefully according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. To enhance external validity, the Delphi method was applied with the participation of 12 domain experts. Qualitative data were coded using MAXQDA software and validated through triangulation, combining document analysis, expert opinions, and simulation. Findings indicate that cognitive computing, leveraging natural language processing, deep learning, and inferential reasoning, plays a strategic role in five key domains: (1) automated detection and tracking of cognitive threats, (2) big data analytics in cyberspace to uncover hidden patterns of cognitive disruption, (3) enhancing informational resilience through cognitive training and critical thinking, (4) forecasting cognitive attacks via predictive modeling and scenario simulation, and (5) providing adaptive and intelligent real-time responses. Quantitative validation indices, including content validity (CVI=0.88), reliability (Cronbach’s alpha=0.89), and expert consensus (Kendall’s W=0.89), confirm the robustness of the proposed model. The main contribution of this research lies in the design and localization of a three-layer framework—comprising hybrid infrastructure, cognitive computing, and cognitive services—tailored to the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This framework can serve as a roadmap for defense and security organizations in confronting cognitive warfare and reinforcing national security. https://www.joem.ir/article_737829.html The policy of approximation of Islamic religions is one of the most important strategies for strengthening convergence, social cohesion, and sustainable security in Islamic societies. Despite numerous studies on the jurisprudential and theological foundations of approximation, the role of this policy in the management of political and social crises has been less systematically examined. The aim of this research is to explain the capacities of the policy of approximation of religions in the management of political and social crises and to present a strategic model in this field. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and qualitative in terms of method. The data were collected using library studies and analysis of reliable documents and analyzed using the content analysis method based on the Brown and Clark model. In the analysis process, 60 initial codes, 18 basic themes, 7 organizing themes, and 3 overarching themes were extracted and based on them, a conceptual model of the research was designed. The results showed that the policy of religious rapprochement creates an effective capacity for preventing and managing political and social crises by strengthening a common Islamic identity, developing interfaith dialogue, increasing social capital, promoting public trust, reducing extremism, strengthening inclusive governance, and developing unity diplomacy. It was also found that social capital, mutual trust, and elite participation play the role of mediating variables in this process. The research findings indicate that the policy of religious rapprochement, if institutionalized in the governance system, education, media, and public policymaking, can become one of the most important tools for promoting national security, reducing religious conflicts, increasing social cohesion, and sustainable crisis management in Islamic societies. The strategic model presented can be a basis for future policymaking and research in the field of religious rapprochement, security, and crisis management.