مدیریت بحران

مدیریت بحران

ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی خطر زلزله در استان بوشهر

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه علوم و فنون خرمشهر
2 دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
چکیده
بحران‌های طبیعی همچون زلزله قادر به تحمیل خسارات جبران‌ناپذیری به انسان و محیط‌زیست هستند. زمین‌لرزه ازجمله بلایای طبیعی به شمار می‌رود که هرساله خسارت جانی و مالی بسیاری را به همراه دارد. امروزه با پیشرفت علم و فنّاوری، زمینه‌های مناسبی برای شناخت و کاهش این خطرات طبیعی فراهم ‌شده است. ازاین‌رو ارزیابی ریسک به‌منظور مدیریت مناسب و کاهش خسارات، حیاتی است. ارزیابی ریسک با فرایند برآورد احتمال وقوع یک رویداد و اهمیت یا شدت اثرات زیان‌آور آن مشخص می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر باهدف ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری استان بوشهر در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه صورت پذیرفته است. در این راستا با ترکیب مدل‌های منطق فازی و سلسله مراتبی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی میزان آسیب‌پذیری استان بوشهر در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه، تحلیل و استخراج ‌شده است. شاخص‌های مؤثر در آسیب‌پذیری زلزله عبارتند از: فاصله از گسل، کانون زلزله، بزرگای زلزله، عمق زلزله، شیب زمین و سنگ‌شناسی. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از آن است 23 درصد گستره استان بوشهر که بیشتر در امتداد گسل‌ها قراردادند در محدوده خطر با آسیب‌پذیری خیلی زیاد مواجه هستند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Earthquake Risk Assessment of Bushehr Province

نویسندگان English

mahyar majidy nik 1
Sadi biglari 2
1 kmsu
2 shahid beheshti
چکیده English

Natural disasters such as earthquakes can cause irreparable damage to humans and the environment. Earthquakes are considered as natural disasters that cause many human and financial losses every year. Today, with the advancement of science and technology, suitable grounds have been provided for recognizing and reducing these natural hazards. Therefore, risk assessment is critical for proper management and reduction of losses. Risk assessment is determined by the process of estimating the probability of an event occurring, and the importance or severity of its adverse effects. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability of Bushehr province to earthquake risk. In this regard, by combining fuzzy and hierarchical logic models using GIS software, the vulnerability of Bushehr province to earthquake risk has been analyzed and extracted. Effective indicators in earthquake vulnerability are: distance from the fault, earthquake epicenter, earthquake magnitude, earthquake depth, land slope and lithology. The results show that 23% of Bushehr province, which is mostly located along faults, are very vulnerable in the danger zone.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Earthquake
Risk Assessment
Hierarchical Analysis
Fuzzy Logic
Bushehr Province
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دوره 11، ویژه نامه پدافند
ویژه نامه پدافند
اسفند 1401
صفحه 11-24

  • تاریخ دریافت 05 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری 21 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 اسفند 1401